Thursday, February 7, 2013

Oddly Relevant Feb-8-2013


The insourcing-boom: While manufacturing jobs peaked in 1979 at 19.6 million and drifted down slowly for the next 20 years (with the country losing jobs 7x faster between 2000 and 2010 than 1980 and 2000), several factors are bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.: (1) oil price 60% higher in 2000, making transport more expensive now, (2) natural gas boom, (3) in dollars, wages in China are 5x more expensive now than it was in 2000, rising at 18% per annum, (4) U.S. labor productivity just kept rising. [Note: Good for all of us, time to look for the next cheap source of labor]…Source: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/12/the-insourcing-boom/309166/3/?single_page=true

Commodity hedge funds lose 20% of assets: the average commodity fund lost 3.7% in 2012, after the 1.4% loss in 2011. The poor performance was mainly attributable to multi-year lows in volatility thanks to liquidity overflow as well as political uncertainties. [Note: brace for the return of volatility, their time will come.]…Source: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ee377c7e-7076-11e2-85d0-00144feab49a.html#axzz2K5uGj1Jx

Excerpt from Jeremy Gratham’s Q4  letter: “When one combines the apparent determination and influence of those who do the bullying with the career risk and short-termism of the bullied and the desire of the general public to believe unbelievable good news, these overpricings can go much further and the Fed can win another round or two.  That’s the problem.  A clue to timing would be when we begin to hear more passionate new era arguments: profit margins will always be higher; growth will snap back to 3% for the developed world; and new ones I can’t think of … maybe “when the discount rate is this low the Dow should sell at, perhaps, 36,000.”  In the meantime, prudent managers should be increasingly careful.” Source: http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/GMO_QtlyLetter_4Q2012.pdf

MasterCard’s new partnership with data analysis: MasterCard Advisors — the division of the credit card company dedicated to analyzing transaction data and providing data consulting services — partnered with data science firm Mu Sigma and MasterCard acquired an undisclosed equity stake in the company. [Note: Could there be better uses for data analysis knowledge?]…Source: http://gigaom.com/2013/02/07/mastercard-buys-a-piece-of-data-science-specialist-mu-sigma/

The new Monopoly piece: an evolution is upon us; the game is casting out the iron from the collection of official game tokens and adding a kitty cat. [Note: No! the iron was my favorite Monopoly piece—it never topples]…Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/02/07/what-that-new-monopoly-piece-tells-us-about-the-economy/

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