Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Oddly Relevant Feb-27-2013


China pushes lending into the shadows: in forms on loan sharks, investment companies, and off-balance sheet lending. Meet “wealth management products”, a bank-guaranteed note that offers 4%+ annual rate in exchange for 3 month+ lock-up. Duration mismatch risk and asset-depreciation risk can be materially dangerous. [Note: the way out may be, paradoxically, less regulation of the formal sector]…Source: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7c76e8e0-80cf-11e2-9c5b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2LmsE5VKa

Prisoner workshop in UK: The idea is not new, but the effort does help lower the reoffending rate (currently as high as 40%) and help pay for the prison budget. Also cost-effective for employers. [Note: probably works beautifully, but can the prisoners refuse to work?]…Source: http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21572201-government-wants-prisoners-be-more-productive-their-release-well-after

Why cable has so many TV channels you never watch: because the cable companies purchase and carry all the channel packages from media companies, and the latter has some pretty good market power. [Note: interestingly, a case when both supplier and the demander have good pricing powers]…Source: http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/02/why-cable-has-so-many-tv-channels-you-never-watch-explained-in-1-lawsuit/273525/

Interview with Michael Mauboussin: “I do think there is a role for intuition in decision making. But what I have said, and I repeat, is that people rely vastly too much on intuition. People draw on much more than they should. Intuition works very well in environments that are stable and linear where you learn about the environment. Sports is a very good example — so if you are learning to play tennis, it is a stable and linear environment. As you play, you get better and better and then your intuition will be very good. Chess is another great example. The grandmasters of chess have enormous intuition, they are analytical but they also have a lot of intuition. Where intuition tends to fail are situations exactly opposite of that — situations that are non-linear and unstable. There you can’t really train yourself, you can’t get feedback. To the degree that the markets and companies operate in a non-linear and unstable environment, it is very difficult to apply intuition.” [Note: a good interview, recommended]…Source: http://business.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?283881

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