Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Oddly Relevant Apr-16-2013


The beefy burly FT Natural Gas Special Report:
Fuel rises to challenge oil industry’s supremacy: “transitional fuel” to a potentially cleaner alternative, projected to grow in demand at 2-3% per annum according to Shell—with potentially faster growth given acceptance as auto-fuel.

The small-scale GLT plants: Abbreviation of Gas-To-Liquid, this technique chemically alter composition of gas molecules to yield high-quality, oil-like liquid. A plant to produce such synthetic crude at 2k barrels/day from 20m standard cubic feet of gas would cost about $200m to build.

Australia’s challenge to secure the 2nd wave of investment: note that Chevron’s Gorgon project, largest in Australian single resource history, overran by 40% to $52bn. The lack of skilled labor and experienced subcontractors + strong Australian dollar prove costly. Firms may need to move fast to secure LNG agreements before buyers turn to other sources.

Innovative FLNG: floating liquefied natural gas facility—produce, liquefy, store and transfer LNG (and potentially LPG and condensate) at sea before carriers ship it directly to markets. Shell is pioneering the effort and, if well executed, saves a ton on middle processes.

What benchmark? Oil-indexed contracts is a bit too crude, since regional gas prices are closely tied to the local supply and demand dynamics that govern regional pipeline systems. This potentially makes them more volatile than oil prices; US Henry Hub price, or even the JKM (Japan-Korea Marker), could be the new benchmark for LT contracts.


  

No comments: