Sunday, March 24, 2013

Oddly Relevant Mar-24-2013


What happens when natural gas is no longer dirt cheap? Per Eduardo Porter of NYT, US CO2 emissions have dropped 13% since 2007 due to recession, better fuel efficiency, and the switch from coal to natural gas. The trend is not turning yet: even in the EIA’s worst-case projections, natural gas prices only rise to about $6 per million BTU by 2020. [Note: I think the key is speed of extraction from reserve—as long as that keeps up, gas price is unlikely to sky-rocket. Something to watch for]…Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/03/22/what-happens-when-natural-gas-is-no-longer-dirt-cheap/

…But look at Gazprom, the world’s largest gas-producer: 75% producer of Russia’s gas and essentially Russia’s state enterprise, Gaszprom today trades at 4-year low and 1/3 of what it was in 2008. Its market cap of $110 bn might be barely ½ of its assets; all thanks to US’s shale boom. It may take another few years for the impact to be truly felt due to long-term contracts, but as new markets and new sources of gas don’t come easily, the omens are not good. [Note: a play would be long Gazprom, short some poorly managed Gas company in the U.S. when the gas prices turn]…Source: http://www.economist.com/news/business/21573975-worlds-biggest-gas-producer-ailing-it-should-be-broken-up-russias-wounded-giant

Alibaba will soon go public: The most dominant e-commerce market clearing $170 bn + transactions per year and a float-generating, bank-like kicker Alipay. The firm became great by selling online advertisements and extra services for merchants and provided tools to build trust. Analysts predict that the IPO will value the company somewhere between $55 billion and more than $120 billion. [Note: One of the best companies in China with un-paralleled moat, I am a buyer]…Source: http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21573980-alibaba-trailblazing-chinese-internet-giant-will-soon-go-public-worlds-greatest-bazaar

The Sino-African Trade: Chinese are the fourth-most-numerous visitors to South Africa and China is Africa’s top business partner, with trade exceeding $166 billion. Source: http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21574012-chinese-trade-africa-keeps-growing-fears-neocolonialism-are-overdone-more/comments#comments

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