What happens when
natural gas is no longer dirt cheap? Per Eduardo Porter of NYT, US CO2
emissions have dropped 13% since 2007 due to recession, better fuel efficiency,
and the switch from coal to natural gas. The trend is not turning yet: even in
the EIA’s worst-case projections, natural gas prices only rise to about $6 per
million BTU by 2020. [Note: I think the key is speed of extraction from reserve—as
long as that keeps up, gas price is unlikely to sky-rocket. Something to watch
for]…Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/03/22/what-happens-when-natural-gas-is-no-longer-dirt-cheap/
…But look at Gazprom,
the world’s largest gas-producer: 75% producer of Russia’s gas and
essentially Russia’s state enterprise, Gaszprom today trades at 4-year low and
1/3 of what it was in 2008. Its market cap of $110 bn might be barely ½ of its
assets; all thanks to US’s shale boom. It may take another few years for the
impact to be truly felt due to long-term contracts, but as new markets and new
sources of gas don’t come easily, the omens are not good. [Note: a play would
be long Gazprom, short some poorly managed Gas company in the U.S. when the gas
prices turn]…Source: http://www.economist.com/news/business/21573975-worlds-biggest-gas-producer-ailing-it-should-be-broken-up-russias-wounded-giant
Alibaba will soon go
public: The most dominant e-commerce market clearing $170 bn + transactions
per year and a float-generating, bank-like kicker Alipay. The firm became great
by selling online advertisements and extra services for merchants and provided
tools to build trust. Analysts predict that the IPO will value the company
somewhere between $55 billion and more than $120 billion. [Note: One of the
best companies in China with un-paralleled moat, I am a buyer]…Source: http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21573980-alibaba-trailblazing-chinese-internet-giant-will-soon-go-public-worlds-greatest-bazaar
The Sino-African
Trade: Chinese are the fourth-most-numerous visitors to South Africa and China
is Africa’s top business partner, with trade exceeding $166 billion. Source: http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21574012-chinese-trade-africa-keeps-growing-fears-neocolonialism-are-overdone-more/comments#comments
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