Nate Silver, the
statistician who predicted the winner in all 50 states: In the end, the big
data won, and this statistician never pegged Obama’s chances of victory at less
than 61.1%. Given mostly independent data from various presses, Nate averaged
polls and accounted for them given the polls’ historical accuracy, recency, and
correlation. Thanks to the size of data and tireless simulation, the averaged
result has a very narrow confidence interval—enough to give a highly certain
prediction. Source: http://news.cnet.com/8301-13510_3-57546161-21/obamas-win-a-big-vindication-for-nate-silver-king-of-the-quants/
[Note: As a statistics major, I think this
is about the triumph of machines and software over gut instinct. We saw it when
Deep Blue defeated Garry Kasparov, and we saw it when Watson beats human at
Jeopardy. More so than ever, computers and the people who know how to use them
are knocking out these crazy notions about gut instinct and intuition that
humans like to cling to, and for far too long, such fuzzy thinking dominated
from sports to medicine. Some day the day will come when we look back at the
early 21st century like we view the medieval in its simplicity and
reliance on superstition.]
And here is one more since I like it so much: http://venturebeat.com/2012/11/07/data-science/
Culled UBS Traders
replaced with algos: The bank replaced David Gallers, head of CDS index
trading, with computer algorithms that can trade as much as $250 million of CDX
IG and $50 on HY in one transaction. Given that CDS are being pushed towards
exchange-like transparency and trading algos’ seeming regulatory capital
requirements, the trend of replacing traders with machines seems keep gaining
traction. [Note: learn computer science or be replaced]…Source: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/11/07/1250191/culled-ubs-traders-replaced-with-algos/
One opinion behind
the decline of interstate migration: Not that there is less specialization,
but there is (1) less regional differences among job openings and pay) and (2)
the rent is too damn high. The two reasons seem to be cross-reinforcing—the more
wages converge, the more similar the cost of living will be. [Note: Or maybe
just demographic shift and ways of counting?]…Source:
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/print/2012/11/why-arent-people-moving-in-america-anymore/264549/
Taleb’s next book,
Antifragile: “Antifragile complements The Black Swan by celebrating systems
that gain from disorder, trading away short-term predictability and
micro-rationality for long-term success exploiting macro-unpredictability. It's
a bold attitude, amply supported by argument and example from many fields. If
anything, it is more outrageous and iconoclastic than The Black Swan…On one
level, the universe (at least as perceived by humans) is ruled by disorder, but
on another level, the crucial elements are those that gain from disorder as
eventually these are fitter for survival than any element, however strong, that
requires order.” Source: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1400067820/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1400067820&linkCode=as2&tag=farnamstreet-20
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