Thursday, November 8, 2012

Oddly Relevant Nov-8-2012

Our dangerous illusion of tech progress: “Many investors practice a fake form of long-term thinking. Portfolio managers see the returns of the 20th century and project those far into the future. Tomorrow’s retirees are betting their fortunes on the success rates of yesterday’s companies. But the vast wealth registered by modern capital markets came from technological feats that cannot be repeated. If nobody takes the risk to invent products that produce new industries and new profits, then analyzing historical returns from the 20th century will be no better guide to our future than researching crop yields from the 10th century. Without innovation, faith in the stock market is a kind of cargo cult”
Don’t by myopic and don’t be addicted to instrumentalism. The only means for humanity to consume fewer resources is through new technology, not slowing down for environment’s sake. The coming generation of leaders and creators will have to rekindle the spirit of risk. Real innovation is difficult and dangerous but living without it is impossible.”

[Note: powerful verses, and I agree; but I see us facing the marginal decline of innovative benefit as the learning curve grows exponentially steeper. So much knowledge had been accumulated that one either (1) can only afford to become a specialist or (2) takes the most innovative years learning, not creating.]


India’s trillion dollar budget on infrastructure will probably never be spent: While India’s urban development minister Kamal Nath taunts left and right about spending the money, (1) the road builders are having a credit crunch, (2) Banks are told to reduce exposure in infrastructure, (3) contractors are overleveraged, and (4) the government serves up bureaucratic paralysis upon project approval. It’s more likely than not that the budget keeps on sitting there. [Source: How do you privatize public goods?]…Source: http://qz.com/25489/when-will-india-spend-its-1-trillion-infrastructure-budget-i-would-say-never/

What it’s like to work for Tim Cook: David Sobotta, a former Apple sales executive, addressed: “For starters, Cook is not a people person…he certainly will not stand behind anyone if the going gets rough…he is poor judge of character…Technology-wise, I think Tim Cook is a lightweight…From what I saw of him, he was something of a loner, his preference is to tinker with spreadsheets and numbers. He is not a natural leader, he is a manager….Apple…is not a sustainable business culture: (1) anyone at Apple will tell you that taking risks and showing leadership are not encouraged, (2) Apple doesn’t develop its own talent…demoralizing, (3) Apple is a ‘next great thing’ company…and it’s slipping.” [Note: Good points, but you left in 2004 didn’t you?]…Source: http://readwrite.com/2012/11/08/whats-it-like-to-work-for-tim-cook-a-former-sales-exec-dishes

Some sensible ideas for reviving America’s entrepreneurial spirit: The JOBS act was a step in the right direction—by quadrupling # of shareholders requirement for private companies before going public. But the government can do more: (1) giving green cards to all foreigners who come to America to study science, tech, engineering, or math, (2) allowing firms to opt out from ETF inclusion, (3) allowing smaller firms to opt out on SOX, (4) breaking university’s technology offices’ monopolies. [Note: Admirable steps.]…Source: http://www.economist.com/node/21563704


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