It
happened: Microsoft to buy Nokia’s device division for 5.44 billion euros: “To avoid any
potential conflict of interest, between now and the pending closure of the
transaction, Stephen Elop will step aside as President and CEO, resign from the
Board of Directors, and will become Executive Vice President, Devices &
Services”
[Note:
Nokia’s shareholders may want a little bit more than that considering that’s ½
of what GOOG paid for Motorola. So SKYPE for $8.5Billion, $870 million in
revenues (no profits) and 911 employees at the time of acquisition and NOKIA
for only $ 7 Billion with revenues in multiple billions (slight profit) and
over 32,000 employees and a huge patent portfolio…On Sept. 10, 2010, when the
Espoo, Finland-based company hired Elop, it was trading at 7.79 euros a share.
As of September 2nd Nokia fell 3.90 euros. Is MSFT going AAPL on Windows Phone
and going the complete user hardware + software experience? And what’s the
trade here? Long NOK for a price raise? Short Samsung? Long BBRY for a take-out
as well? Oh boy this is exciting…]
Ted
Sarandos of Netflix:
“Television is going to be mostly on-demand and mostly delivered [digitally] —
then someone had to lead that charge. It had to be something as good or better
than anything on TV…Television no longer refers to the box sitting in your
living room — television refers to storytelling…the method by which our viewers
experience those stories is truly irrelevant."…Source: http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-et-netflix-ted-sarandos-20130825-dto,0,1864697.htmlstory
…and
in that light, Kevin Spacey’s speech: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0ukYf_xvgc#t=14
Last
Gasp for Stock Options? At their peak in 1999, stock options accounted for about
78% of the average executive’s long-term incentive packages. Last year, they
represented just 31%, and are expected to shrink to 25% in the next two years,
based on grant values so far this year, according to an analysis of the 200
largest U.S. public companies by compensation consulting firm James F. Reda
& Associates…Source: http://blogs.wsj.com/cfo/2013/08/26/last-gasp-for-stock-options/
Why
One Group of Stock Analysts Beats The Herd: The study looked at the track
records for 2,645 analysts who covered an average six companies each, creating
more than 16,000 forecasting records. It found that “vertical specialists” –
the supplier and customer followers -- consistently outperformed sector
specialists, regardless of analyst expertise or experience, or the type of
company studied. Investors who followed recommendations from vertical
specialists generated an average one-year return of 10.9% on their investments,
compared to returns of 1.72% for those that followed sector analysts, according
to the study. Vertical strategists also produced forecasts that were 2.9 times
more accurate and six times more consistent than those from industry analysts,
according to the report. [Note: Insightful, but is it easier said than
done?]….Source: http://ycharts.com/analysis/story/why_one_group_of_stock_analysts_outperforms_the_herd
Gundlach
Likes Annaly, Mortgage REITs Now: There is plenty of yied right now in the
bond market, but it’s not in Treasuries. I’m talking about closed-end funds,
I’m talking about mortgage REITs. These are vehicles that are trading at 10%
discounts to their net asset values, or for REITs versus their book
value….They’re generating yields where it’s not that hard to put together a
basket of investments that yields 8%, but people don’t want to buy these
investments now due to fear and loathing….”[Note:by the way insiders had been
buying millions $ worth of shares]…Source: http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinvesting/2013/08/29/gundlach-likes-annaly-mortgage-reits-now/
Please
go activist on Nintendo? Nintendo is doing poorly because they seem incapable of
producing best-of-breed hardware, both in console and handheld. The world has
changed in the last five years, and hundreds of millions of people now carry
powerful, well-made, touchscreen computers with them everywhere they go.
Nintendo should expand to start making games optimized for these devices — in
the short term as opportunity to sell more games, in the long term as a hedge
for the possibility that the company will no longer be able to compete at all
in hardware…I can’t recall anyone clamoring for Nintendo to make PC games; I
bet there are millions clamoring for Nintendo to make iOS games….It seems far
more likely that Nintendo can produce amazing games for iOS than that they can
produce technically competitive handheld hardware. I see no harm in trying
both. [Note: maybe?]…Source: http://daringfireball.net/2013/09/nintendo_in_motion
Time
to perform task:
[Note: fairly insightful points for business tasks]
•
To develop a new pharmaceutical drug: 12 years (Pfizer, Merck, GlaxoSmithKline,
etc.)
•
To develop a new car: 12 months for a minor refresh and 4-5 years for a
completely new design (Ford, General Motors, Honda, Toyota, etc.)
•
For a defense contractor to design and build a new fighter aircraft: about 10
years (Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, EADS, etc.)
•
For a major film studio to produce a movie: 1-2 years (4-6 years if you include
preproduction work like story and script development) (Sony, Fox, Viacom,
Vivendi, etc.)
•
For a video game company to develop a new major release: 1-2 years or more
(Electronic Arts, ActivisionBlizzard, Take Two Interactive, etc.)
•
To design and build a new commercial airliner: About 8 years from design to
first commercial flight (Boeing, Airbus)
•
For a computer hardware company to develop a new microprocessor: 2-4 years
(Intel, AMD)
•
For a software company to develop a new operating system: about 2-4 years
(Microsoft, Apple)
•
To build new housing development/town: 2-10+ years (Lennar, DR Horton, KB
Homes, Toll Brothers, St. Joe, Tejon Ranch, etc.)
•
To build one home: 4-6 months
•
To build new power plant: 1 year (for small natural gas peaking unit) and up to
15+ years (for a new nuclear plant) (Exelon, Duke, AEP, GE, Hitachi, Fluor,
KBR, etc.)
•
To design, build, and ship a new video game console (e.g., Xbox, PlayStation):
3-5 years (Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo)
•
Remodel of a large department store: 1-3 years (JCPenney, Macys, Kohls, etc.)
•
Explore, discover, test, and deliver oil from new oil field: 3–10 years
(ExxonMobil, Chevron, etc.)
•
For a chemical company to research and bring to market a new compound (Kevlar,
Twaron, NOMEX, etc.): 5–10 years (DuPont, Akzo-Nobel, Dow, etc.)
•
For a fast food restaurant to research, test, and place a new item on the menu:
about 1 year (McDonalds, Burger King, Yum! Brands)
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